Deal or No Deal

I watch several TV shows, including 24, Prison Break etc. – but this show Deal or No Deal always hooks me. I even bought a mini arcade TV video game version of this popular TV show. Heres my take on the game – its NOT about winning a million, its about winning the most you can based on your odds!!! Its so crazy to see someone walk out with below $300 when they reached a crucial point where they could have walked away with at least $130,000 (half after taxes!). The crowd cheering “go one more time” or one’s supporters screaming that, or something in you, should not make you keep “hoping” your case has $1,000,000.00 ( $500k approximately after taxes).
For example, a contestant got to a 50-50 point with 2 low numbers and 2 large – 300,000 and 500,000, she was offered over $100,000. Her next large number on the board was $75,000. Think! If you knock out the 300k and 500k, you never will get offered anything close to 75k. She went ahead and subsequently knocked off in sequence 300k and 500k. Finally she settled for $23k which is about 1/2 after taxes. The smartest contestant to me while this new season (with $1million added each time up to $8million) kicked off was the lady who won about $306,000. Even though she and someone else where the only 2 contestants whose cases actually held $1million, she cashed in when the odds were best in her favour. You dont need a college statistics class to hopefully figure out this game show, but it sure helps to understand the basics of probability.